How NFL Point Spreads Actually Work
A point spread assigns a handicap — say, -6.5 — to the team oddsmakers consider stronger. That team must win by seven or more points for a bet on them to cash. The opposing side, listed at +6.5, wins the bet if they lose by six or fewer or win outright. Lines open Sunday night or Monday after the previous week's games
and shift through the week as money moves and injury reports land. Tracking line movement from open to close tells you where sharp money is landing. Half-point spreads, called hook numbers, eliminate the possibility of a push.